Tracking losses in the broader market that has seen the Nifty Smallcap 250 index and the Nifty Midcap 100 indices slip 9 per cent 6.1 per cent in the last three sessions, the frontline Nifty 50 index has remained resilient and registered a fall of 2.2 per cent during this period. Going ahead, can the nervousness in the mid- and small-cap universe spread to the large-cap peers? Most analysts do not think so. They expect a minor dip and a sharp recovery as investors flock to the large-caps in search of safety and value buying as the mid-and small-caps falter.
It has mostly been a one-way street for smallcap stocks that have taken it on their chin thus far in February. The Nifty Smallcap 250 index has shed 3.2 per cent in the current month as compared to the 1.8 per cent decline in the Nifty Midcap 100 and the 0.5 per cent drop in the Nifty 50 index, data showed. Technically, the index has slipped below its 20-day moving average (DMA) placed at 14,800 levels on Monday, and is currently testing the 50-DMA, and is placed at 14,278 levels.
Nearly 90 per cent of the stocks comprising the National Stock Exchange Nifty 500 Index and 49 of the 50 stocks that make up the Nifty50 are trading above their respective 200-day moving averages (DMAs). The 200-DMA is considered one of the most relevant trend indicators by investors and traders. They believe that stocks and indices trading above this key level exhibit strength and are likely to rally, while those trading below this level are viewed as bearish, with the stock/index expected to see a selloff.
'Focus on 19,400/64,900 as the key resistance levels for the Nifty/Sensex.'
'We are not entirely out of the woods.' 'The broader trajectory remains tentative.' 'However, we may expect some near-term bounce.'
Historically, March has been a volatile month for Indian equity markets. To begin with, it marks the end of a financial year, wherein there is some compulsive portfolio rebalancing trade by large funds - domestic and foreign. Retail investors, too, prefer to 'cash in' on their gains and losses before the financial year runs out.
Among the Sensex 30 stocks, new entrant Sesa Goa soared 22 per cent to Rs 187, while TCS rose 11 per cent to Rs 2,023.
The bias for the Sensex is likely to remain bearish as long as the index sustains below 18,900-odd levels. On the downside, the index could slide to 17,300-odd levels
The BSE benchmark index is yet to give any indication on the monthly Fibonacci charts.
Since we are at the start of the month and the quarter, we shall look at the broader picture for the markets.
For this quarter, the yearly and quarterly charts indicate strong support for the Sensex.
The Sensex recorded its second-worst fall since January this year and the biggest single-day percentage fall of 11 per cent in the last 16 years. It has been an October that can be best forgotten. In the last three weeks, the Sensex has shed a third of its value.
